Nvidia has much more of a stranglehold on the GPU market proper now, going by the most recent stats from an analyst agency.
Tom’s {Hardware} noticed that Jon Peddie Analysis (JPR) now has stats for Q1 2024, and on an general stage, it’s optimistic information, as desktop graphics card shipments are up strongly by 39% year-on-year. (Even when they’re down on the earlier quarter – however that’s extra wrapped up in seasonality, with This autumn being a bumper time for gross sales).
Nvidia’s market share shot as much as 88% in Q1, in accordance with JPR, from 80% the earlier quarter, and most of that was, after all, stolen from AMD, which fell from 19% to 12%. In the meantime Intel, struggling to maintain afloat with its Arc (ahem) GPUs, just about sunk this quarter if JPR is true, with its 1% share vanishing to change into 0% (or negligible, principally – not actually zero).
If we take a look at the historic chart of GPU market share from JPR, we are able to see that Nvidia has by no means had a stronger grip on the world of desktop graphics playing cards. Group Inexperienced has beforehand seen its market share within the excessive eighties, peaking at 87% in 2022, nevertheless it’s by no means been fairly as excessive as it’s now (not less than not going again over the previous decade, and so far as we are able to recall, earlier than that too).
Nvidia holds what quantities to a near-monopoly, in the identical vein as, say, Google with search, at this level (though the GPU market is extra susceptible to bigger shifts, it needs to be famous).
At any charge, this appears like dangerous information for the patron, doesn’t it? Properly, perhaps not, and let’s dive in to discover that subsequent.
Evaluation: Pushing AMD to give you one thing particular?
Definitely, this near-monopoly being a miserable actuality is an comprehensible viewpoint to instantly gravitate in direction of. Nvidia has been charging a relative fortune for its RTX 4000 GPUs (notably from mid-to-higher-end) and whereas pricing has lastly eased off this yr to some extent – which can be a part of the rationale for the leap in market share – it’s nonetheless comparatively excessive general.
And with Group Inexperienced sitting again and taking a look at this success, it hardly bodes properly for what Nvidia may select to do with costs for its next-gen RTX 5000 fashions, does it? Properly, perhaps not, however we’re holding on to a hope that this newest minor market share earthquake may shake issues up and provides AMD a kick within the seat of the pants.
Right here’s our principle for what it’s value: bear in mind, AMD doesn’t have any higher-end graphics playing cards popping out later this yr with RDNA 4 (based mostly on an entire load of fairly robust rumors at this stage – it’d be a shock in the event that they had been incorrect, to say the least).
This received’t be a fantastic search for Group Purple, actually, as Nvidia purportedly steamrollers in with a mighty new RTX 5090 (that might be a revolutionary flagship on a number of fronts, not simply efficiency) and a heavyweight RTX 5080. Whereas AMD has no reply by any means, after all.
We’ve argued this earlier than, and we’ll push the concept once more now: AMD will need – no, want – to make an actual mark on the mid-range to maintain up its picture as a cutting-edge GPU maker. And that probably means some severely aggressive worth propositions right here, to essentially take the battle to Nvidia (and perhaps make the RTX 5080 look dangerous – if it’s as expensive as we count on the GPU might be).
Now, what with this newest shift, and stomach-churning drop in GPU market share for AMD, in our books, that makes this prospect much more more likely to occur. Briefly, this recent growth makes it seem to be Group Purple is absolutely going to have to drag out the large weapons for RDNA 4. (Assuming there’s no nice restoration in Q2, on the spin of a dime – which appears unlikely).
In a means, then, Nvidia’s elevated dominance may work out properly for shoppers, though that is, after all, pure hypothesis, and the scenario may definitely pan out in different ways in which aren’t so nice for the common client. Let’s not be naïve right here – and as talked about, this probably isn’t excellent news for the possible pricing of the RTX 5080 (we already know the RTX 5090 goes to be exorbitant, naturally).
As for Intel dwindling to successfully nothing, that’s disappointing, as a 3rd horse within the GPU race could be one other win for shoppers. Whereas Alchemist has floundered, although, don’t rule out Intel’s next-gen, Battlemage, simply but. The 2nd-gen graphics playing cards could find yourself being fairly restricted in scope – perhaps lower-end solely – however peppy candidates for the greatest funds GPUs could be very welcome additional down the road (subsequent yr).
